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Attack ChainAIDerived

Hypothetical attack flow derived from CVE metadata – not a confirmed exploit chain

  1. Access
    Obtain low-privileged local access
  2. Delivery
    Repeatedly invoke Windows Key Guard operation
  3. Exploit
    Win race-condition timing window
  4. Execution
    Corrupt shared resource state
  5. Persist
    Execute with elevated privileges
  6. Impact
    Full local system compromise

Vulnerability Assessment

Weakness
CWE
OWASP Top 10:2025
A06:2025 - Insecure Design
ASVS 5.0
V15 - Secure Coding and Architecture Concurrency control, locking
MITRE ATT&CK

1 technique across 1 tactic: Privilege Escalation

The technique list with ATT&CK links and the kill-chain view is part of the Basic plan and up.

Exploitation Conditions

The attacker must already have authenticated local access with at least low privileges (CVSS PR:L, AV:L) - this is not remotely exploitable and requires an existing foothold on the target. No user interaction is needed (UI:N). The principal limiting factor is the race condition itself (AC:H): exploitation depends on winning a narrow timing window in Windows Key Guard's access to a shared resource, which is non-deterministic and cannot be reliably automated (SSVC Automatable: no), so success typically requires repeated attempts and favorable timing/scheduling conditions. Realistic risk is concentrated on multi-user systems (RDS/terminal servers, shared workstations, jump boxes) where untrusted low-privileged users can run code; single-user, well-isolated endpoints are far less exposed.

Impact

The signals are internally consistent and point to a genuine-but-not-urgent local escalation issue. The CVSS 3.1 vector (AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H, 7.0) shows local access with LOW privileges already required, and critically AC:H - a high-complexity race that an attacker must win a timing window to trigger - which tempers the otherwise-total C/I/A impact. This aligns with SSVC (Exploitation: none, Automatable: no, Technical Impact: total): the 'total' impact matches the full C/I/A compromise, while 'Automatable: no' matches AC:H because a timing race cannot be reliably scripted at scale. EPSS of 0.24% (16th percentile) reinforces low near-term exploitation likelihood, and there is no KEV listing and no public PoC. This is a patch-in-normal-cycle item, not a drop-everything emergency; it becomes higher priority on multi-user or shared/terminal-server hosts where untrusted local users have footholds. No signals conflict - the low EPSS, no-exploitation SSVC, and AC:H all agree that real-world risk is currently modest despite the high technical impact.

Exploit ScenarioDerived

An attacker who already has a low-privileged foothold on a Windows host - for example a standard user account, or code running after a phishing-based initial access - repeatedly triggers the Key Guard operation to hit the narrow synchronization window. On a successful race win, they corrupt the shared resource's state to execute with elevated privileges, gaining full control of the machine. No public exploit code is identified at this time, and the AC:H rating means the attacker likely needs many attempts, but the payoff is total system compromise.

This Week Schedule remediation this week. Why: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9).
Patch available 0.2% exploitation probability (EPSS)

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AnalysisAIv2 – Jul 20, 2026

Local privilege escalation in Windows Key Guard affects all supported Windows 10, Windows 11, and Windows Server releases (Server 2019 through 2025), where a race condition in the synchronization of a shared resource lets an already-authenticated local user win a timing window to elevate to higher privileges. Microsoft has released patches and rates it Important (CVSS 7.0); there is no public exploit identified at time of analysis and CISA SSVC records exploitation status as none, though the technical impact is rated total. EPSS is low at 0.24% (16th percentile), consistent with a high-complexity local flaw rather than a widely-scanned remote target.

Earlier versions of this analysis (1)
v1 Jul 14, 2026 - 21:09 CVSS 7.8

Local privilege escalation in Windows Key Guard affecting Windows 10 (1809/21H2/22H2), Windows 11 (24H2/25H2/26H1), and Windows Server 2019/2022/2025 allows an already-authenticated local attacker to win a race condition (CWE-362) and gain higher privileges. Reported by Microsoft with a patch now available; there is no public exploit identified at time of analysis and it is not listed in CISA KEV. The CVSS 7.8 rating reflects full confidentiality, integrity, and availability impact once the timing window is exploited.

RemediationAI

Apply the Microsoft security update: Vendor-released patch is available, with fixed builds of 10.0.17763.9020 (1809 / Server 2019), 10.0.19044.7548 (21H2), 10.0.19045.7548 (22H2), 10.0.20348.5386 (Server 2022), 10.0.26100.8875 (Windows 11 24H2), 10.0.26200.8875 (25H2), 10.0.28000.2269 (26H1), and 10.0.26100.33158 (Server 2025) - install the relevant cumulative update via Windows Update or your patch-management tooling, guided by the MSRC advisory at https://msrc.microsoft.com/update-guide/vulnerability/CVE-2026-50378. Microsoft has not published a supported workaround for this component, so patching is the only reliable fix; as an interim compensating control, restrict interactive and local logon rights so untrusted users cannot run code on affected hosts (most impactful on shared/RDS/terminal-server and jump-box systems), and monitor for anomalous local process behavior - noting these controls reduce exposure but do not remediate the underlying race condition. Prioritize multi-user and Server Core hosts where low-privileged local access is more likely.

Affected VersionsENISA

Windows 11 Version 24H2 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.8875
Windows 11 Version 25H2 10.0.26200.0 <10.0.26200.8875
Windows 10 Version 22H2 10.0.19045.0 <10.0.19045.7548
Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33158
Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.0 <10.0.20348.5386
Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33158
Windows 11 version 26H1 10.0.28000.0 <10.0.28000.2269
Windows 10 Version 1809 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows 10 Version 21H2 10.0.19044.0 <10.0.19044.7548

Affected Packages

microsoft windows_10_version_1809_10_0_17763_9020 fix: Windows 10 Version 1809 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.17763.9020, Windows 10 Version 1809 for x64-based Systems 10.0.17763.9020
microsoft windows_10_version_21h2_10_0_19044_7548 fix: Windows 10 Version 21H2 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.19044.7548, Windows 10 Version 21H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.19044.7548, Windows 10 Version 21H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.19044.7548
microsoft windows_10_version_22h2_10_0_19045_7548 fix: Windows 10 Version 22H2 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.19045.7548, Windows 10 Version 22H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.19045.7548, Windows 10 Version 22H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.19045.7548
microsoft windows_11_version_24h2_10_0_26100_8875 fix: Windows 11 Version 24H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.26100.8875, Windows 11 Version 24H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.26100.8875
microsoft windows_11_version_25h2_10_0_26200_8875 fix: Windows 11 Version 25H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.26200.8875, Windows 11 Version 25H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.26200.8875
microsoft windows_11_version_26h1_10_0_28000_2269 fix: Windows 11 version 26H1 for x64-based Systems 10.0.28000.2269
microsoft windows_11_version_26h1_10_0_28000_2525 fix: Windows 11 Version 26H1 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.28000.2525
microsoft windows_server_2019_10_0_17763_9020 fix: Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.9020, Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.9020
microsoft windows_server_2022_10_0_20348_5386 fix: Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.5386
microsoft windows_server_2025_10_0_26100_33158 fix: Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.33158, Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.33158
euvd windows_10_version_1809 fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_10_version_21h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7548
euvd windows_10_version_22h2 fix: 10.0.19045.7548
euvd windows_11_version_24h2 fix: 10.0.26100.8875
euvd windows_11_version_25h2 fix: 10.0.26200.8875
euvd windows_11_version_26h1 fix: 10.0.28000.2269
euvd windows_server_2019 fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_server_2019_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_server_2022 fix: 10.0.20348.5386
euvd windows_server_2025 fix: 10.0.26100.33158
euvd windows_server_2025_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.26100.33158

Source: OSV (Open Source Vulnerabilities)

Affects your stack

Affects 21 packages in microsoft, euvd

Checking this CVE against your own stacks and servers is part of the Basic plan and up.

Technical ContextAI · show details

Windows Key Guard is a Windows platform security component involved in protecting cryptographic key material. The root cause is CWE-362, a concurrent execution flaw using a shared resource with improper synchronization ('race condition'): two or more threads/processes access shared state without adequate locking, creating a time-of-check-to-time-of-use window an attacker can exploit to manipulate privileged operations. The CPE set (cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:windows_10_version_1809 through windows_server_2025) confirms this is a core operating-system-level component present across the entire modern Windows codebase rather than an optional add-on, which is why every current client and server SKU is enumerated as affected.

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  • Exploit and PoC references, threat intelligence from 22 sources

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Severity by source

Vendor (microsoft) PRIMARY HIGH
NVD 7.0 HIGH
AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
CIRCL (temporal) 6.8 MEDIUM
vuln.today AI 7.0 HIGH

Local, already-authenticated low-priv attacker (AV:L/PR:L) must win a non-deterministic timing race (AC:H); successful escalation yields full system control, so C/I/A all High.

3.1 AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
4.0 AV:L/AC:H/AT:N/PR:L/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Primary rating from Vendor (microsoft).

CVSS VectorNVD

Attack Vector
Local
Attack Complexity
High
Privileges Required
Low
User Interaction
None
Scope
Unchanged
Confidentiality
High
Integrity
High
Availability
High

Lifecycle Timeline

3
Analysis Updated
Jul 20, 2026 - 17:58 vuln.today
v2 - CVSS changed
CVSS changed
Jul 20, 2026 - 17:52 NVD
7.8 (HIGH) 7.0 (HIGH)
CVE Published
Jul 14, 2026 - 17:07 nvd
HIGH 7.8

DescriptionNVD

Concurrent execution using shared resource with improper synchronization ('race condition') in Windows Key Guard allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

Executive ViewAI

Why It Matters

Windows Key Guard (affecting Windows 10, 11, and Server 2019-2025) contains a local privilege escalation vulnerability that allows already-authenticated users to elevate permissions through a race condition in shared resource synchronization. The vulnerability impacts all supported Windows editions and carries a high CVSS score (7.0), requiring immediate patching to prevent internal threat actors or compromised accounts from escalating privileges to administrative level.

Business Impact: High
Compensating Controls

Apply vendor patch.

Threat Intelligence Overview

EPSS Score
0.2%
Top 84% exploitable
Prevalence
Ubiquitous
core component of all supported Windows client and server editions
Vendor Action
See Below
Required. The vulnerability documented by this CVE requires customer action to resolve.
Vendor Status
Publicly Disclosed:No
Exploited:No
Latest Software Release:Exploitation Less Likely
Data Quality
5 sources
Confidence: Medium

How this decision was reached

The engine reads each signal below and applies a fixed list of rules from top to bottom. The first rule that matches sets the recommended action – like a statement, every line is shown.

SignalValue
Severity HIGH
CISA KEV No
Public POC No
EPSS 0.2%
Patch available Yes
Active threat No
Deciding rule
HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9)
What every action level means
Emergency Immediate action required. Criteria: CRITICAL + in CISA KEV (actively exploited) without patch, OR CRITICAL + EPSS > 30% without patch, OR CRITICAL + active threat signals without patch.
Act Now Prioritize within 24-48h. Criteria: in KEV with patch available, OR CRITICAL + public POC, OR HIGH + EPSS > 10%, OR CRITICAL + active threat, OR any CRITICAL severity.
This Week Schedule remediation this week. Criteria: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9). Patch within normal change window.
This Month Plan within 30 days. Criteria: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9), lower exploitation probability. Include in regular patch cycle.
Monitor Track and reassess. Criteria: LOW severity (CVSS 0.1-3.9), minimal exploitation risk. No immediate action needed.

SSVC AssessmentENISA

SSVC Decision
Scheduled
Exploitation
None
System Exposure· derived
Small
Automatable
No
Human Impact
High
Technical Impact
Total

Priority Score

35
Low Medium High Critical
KEV: 0
EPSS: 0
CVSS: +35
PoC: 0
Weaponized: 0
Threat intel: 0
Gov advisory: 0

Attack Technique

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