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Attack ChainAIDerived

Hypothetical attack flow derived from CVE metadata – not a confirmed exploit chain

  1. Access
    Obtain low-privileged local code execution
  2. Delivery
    Repeatedly invoke racing Win32K syscalls
  3. Exploit
    Win kernel timing race window
  4. Execution
    Corrupt shared kernel object state
  5. Persist
    Elevate to SYSTEM
  6. Impact
    Install persistence or move laterally

Vulnerability Assessment

Weakness
CWE
OWASP Top 10:2025
A06:2025 - Insecure Design
ASVS 5.0
V15 - Secure Coding and Architecture Concurrency control, locking
MITRE ATT&CK

1 technique across 1 tactic: Privilege Escalation

The technique list with ATT&CK links and the kill-chain view is part of the Basic plan and up.

Exploitation Conditions

Exploitation requires the attacker to already possess local, authenticated low-privileged code execution on the target (CVSS PR:L, AV:L) - this is a privilege-escalation primitive, not a remote entry point, and cannot be triggered over the network or by a remote unauthenticated actor. Success further depends on winning a race condition in Win32K (AC:H), meaning the attacker must repeatedly and precisely time concurrent operations to hit a non-deterministic window; there is no special product feature or non-default configuration that must be enabled, since Win32K is a core component present on all listed builds. Limiting factors that reduce realistic risk: the need for an existing local foothold, the timing-dependent unreliability of the race (SSVC Automatable 'no'), that no victim user interaction is involved (UI:N), and that the affected build must be below the fixed patch level listed by Microsoft.

Impact

The signals are internally consistent and point to a real-but-not-emergency local EoP. CVSS 7.0 with AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U and C:H/I:H/A:H means an attacker must already be running code as a low-privileged user and must win a timing-sensitive race (high complexity), but success yields full compromise. SSVC agrees: Exploitation 'none', Automatable 'no', but Technical Impact 'total' - the AC:H and non-automatable rating are the main things holding real-world urgency down. EPSS of 0.16% (5th percentile) reinforces low near-term exploitation probability, and the CVE is not on CISA KEV. This is a patch-in-normal-cycle item rather than a drop-everything issue, though the 'total' technical impact means it is valuable as a post-exploitation step in a chain and should not be deferred indefinitely, especially on multi-user or terminal-server hosts.

Exploit ScenarioDerived

An attacker who already has a low-privileged foothold - for example a standard user account, a compromised service, or code delivered via a separate phishing/RCE step - runs a program that repeatedly triggers the racing Win32K syscalls to hit the narrow timing window. On a successful race they corrupt kernel object state and escalate to SYSTEM, then use that access to disable defenses, install persistence, or move laterally. No public exploit is identified at time of analysis, and the high attack complexity means the attacker may need many attempts to win the race.

This Week Schedule remediation this week. Why: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9).
Patch available 0.2% exploitation probability (EPSS)

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AnalysisAIv2 – Jul 15, 2026

Local privilege escalation in the Windows Win32K kernel-mode subsystem allows an already-authenticated attacker to win a race condition (CWE-362) and elevate to SYSTEM-level privileges across supported Windows 10, Windows 11, and Windows Server 2019-2025 builds. Reported by Microsoft with a vendor patch available; there is no public exploit identified at time of analysis and EPSS is low (0.16%, 5th percentile). CVSS 7.0 reflects high attack complexity (AC:H) driven by the timing-window nature of the flaw and the requirement for existing low-privilege access (PR:L).

Earlier versions of this analysis (1)
v1 Jul 14, 2026 - 18:12 CVSS 7.8

Local privilege escalation in the Windows Win32K kernel-mode subsystem lets a low-privileged authenticated user win a race condition to execute code with elevated (SYSTEM-level) privileges. The flaw affects a broad range of supported Windows client and server builds, from Windows 10 1809 through Windows 11 26H1 and Windows Server 2019 through 2025. Microsoft reported the issue and has shipped a fix; there is no public exploit identified at time of analysis and it is not listed in CISA KEV.

RemediationAI

Apply the Microsoft security update that raises each affected build past its fixed version: 10.0.17763.9020 (1809 / Server 2019), 10.0.19044.7548 (21H2), 10.0.19045.7548 (22H2), 10.0.20348.5386 (Server 2022), 10.0.26100.8875 (Windows 11 24H2), 10.0.26200.8875 (25H2), 10.0.28000.2525 (26H1), and 10.0.26100.33158 (Server 2025 and Server 2025 Server Core); these ship through the normal cumulative-update channel referenced at https://msrc.microsoft.com/update-guide/vulnerability/CVE-2026-54112. Because this is a Win32K kernel component with no configurable feature toggle, there is no clean product-level workaround, so patching is the only reliable fix. Until the update is deployed, reduce exposure by limiting who can execute code on the host - enforce least privilege, remove unnecessary interactive/local logon rights, and prioritize patching shared multi-user systems (RDS/terminal servers, jump boxes) where untrusted low-privileged users are most likely to be present; these controls limit the low-privileged foothold the exploit requires but do not remove the underlying flaw.

Affected VersionsENISA

Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.0 <10.0.20348.5386
Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33158
Windows 10 Version 21H2 10.0.19044.0 <10.0.19044.7548
Windows 11 Version 24H2 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.8875
Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows 11 Version 25H2 10.0.26200.0 <10.0.26200.8875
Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33158
Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows 10 Version 1809 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9020
Windows 11 version 26H1 10.0.28000.0 <10.0.28000.2525
Windows 10 Version 22H2 10.0.19045.0 <10.0.19045.7548

Affected Packages

microsoft windows_10_version_1809_10_0_17763_9020 fix: Windows 10 Version 1809 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.17763.9020, Windows 10 Version 1809 for x64-based Systems 10.0.17763.9020
microsoft windows_10_version_21h2_10_0_19044_7548 fix: Windows 10 Version 21H2 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.19044.7548, Windows 10 Version 21H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.19044.7548, Windows 10 Version 21H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.19044.7548
microsoft windows_10_version_22h2_10_0_19045_7548 fix: Windows 10 Version 22H2 for 32-bit Systems 10.0.19045.7548, Windows 10 Version 22H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.19045.7548, Windows 10 Version 22H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.19045.7548
microsoft windows_11_version_24h2_10_0_26100_8875 fix: Windows 11 Version 24H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.26100.8875, Windows 11 Version 24H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.26100.8875
microsoft windows_11_version_25h2_10_0_26200_8875 fix: Windows 11 Version 25H2 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.26200.8875, Windows 11 Version 25H2 for x64-based Systems 10.0.26200.8875
microsoft windows_11_version_26h1_10_0_28000_2525 fix: Windows 11 Version 26H1 for ARM64-based Systems 10.0.28000.2525, Windows 11 version 26H1 for x64-based Systems 10.0.28000.2525
microsoft windows_server_2019_10_0_17763_9020 fix: Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.9020, Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.9020
microsoft windows_server_2022_10_0_20348_5386 fix: Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.5386
microsoft windows_server_2025_10_0_26100_33158 fix: Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.33158, Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.33158
euvd windows_10_version_1809 fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_10_version_21h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7548
euvd windows_10_version_22h2 fix: 10.0.19045.7548
euvd windows_11_version_24h2 fix: 10.0.26100.8875
euvd windows_11_version_25h2 fix: 10.0.26200.8875
euvd windows_11_version_26h1 fix: 10.0.28000.2525
euvd windows_server_2019 fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_server_2019_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.17763.9020
euvd windows_server_2022 fix: 10.0.20348.5386
euvd windows_server_2025 fix: 10.0.26100.33158
euvd windows_server_2025_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.26100.33158

Source: OSV (Open Source Vulnerabilities)

Affects your stack

Affects 20 packages in microsoft, euvd

Checking this CVE against your own stacks and servers is part of the Basic plan and up.

Technical ContextAI · show details

Win32K (win32k.sys / win32kfull.sys) is the Windows kernel-mode graphics and windowing subsystem that services GDI and USER syscalls from user mode; it has a long history of local privilege-escalation bugs because it runs at kernel privilege yet is directly reachable from any interactive process. This issue is a CWE-362 race condition: two or more threads access a shared kernel resource without proper synchronization, so an attacker who carefully times concurrent operations can manipulate object state (for example a use-after-free or state-confusion window) that the kernel assumes is stable. The affected CPEs are Microsoft OS builds only - Windows 10 (1809, 21H2, 22H2), Windows 11 (24H2, 25H2, 26H1), and Windows Server 2019/2022/2025 including Server Core - confirming this is a core OS component rather than an optional feature.

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  • Exploit and PoC references, threat intelligence from 22 sources

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Severity by source

Vendor (microsoft) PRIMARY HIGH
NVD 7.0 HIGH
AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
CIRCL (temporal) 6.8 MEDIUM
vuln.today AI 7.0 HIGH

Local low-privileged foothold required (AV:L/PR:L), timing-dependent race gives AC:H, and a successful win yields full SYSTEM compromise (C:H/I:H/A:H, scope unchanged).

3.1 AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
4.0 AV:L/AC:H/AT:N/PR:L/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Primary rating from Vendor (microsoft).

CVSS VectorNVD

Attack Vector
Local
Attack Complexity
High
Privileges Required
Low
User Interaction
None
Scope
Unchanged
Confidentiality
High
Integrity
High
Availability
High

Lifecycle Timeline

3
Analysis Updated
Jul 15, 2026 - 18:23 vuln.today
v2 - CVSS changed
CVSS changed
Jul 15, 2026 - 18:07 NVD
7.8 (HIGH) 7.0 (HIGH)
CVE Published
Jul 14, 2026 - 17:04 nvd
HIGH 7.8

DescriptionNVD

Concurrent execution using shared resource with improper synchronization ('race condition') in Windows Win32K allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

Executive ViewAI

Why It Matters

CVE-2026-54112 is a local privilege escalation vulnerability in the Windows kernel (Win32K subsystem) affecting Windows 10, Windows 11, and Windows Server 2019-2025, allowing already-authenticated users to escalate to SYSTEM-level privileges. This poses a significant risk to organizations where internal compromise is possible or where users may become compromised, potentially enabling complete system takeover. A vendor patch is available, making this a manageable risk for organizations with timely patching capabilities.

Business Impact: High
Compensating Controls

Apply vendor patch.

Threat Intelligence Overview

EPSS Score
0.2%
Top 95% exploitable
Prevalence
Ubiquitous
Win32K is a core component of every supported Windows client and server
Vendor Action
See Below
Required. The vulnerability documented by this CVE requires customer action to resolve.
Vendor Status
Publicly Disclosed:No
Exploited:No
Latest Software Release:Exploitation Unlikely
Data Quality
5 sources
Confidence: Medium

How this decision was reached

The engine reads each signal below and applies a fixed list of rules from top to bottom. The first rule that matches sets the recommended action – like a statement, every line is shown.

SignalValue
Severity HIGH
CISA KEV No
Public POC No
EPSS 0.2%
Patch available Yes
Active threat No
Deciding rule
HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9)
What every action level means
Emergency Immediate action required. Criteria: CRITICAL + in CISA KEV (actively exploited) without patch, OR CRITICAL + EPSS > 30% without patch, OR CRITICAL + active threat signals without patch.
Act Now Prioritize within 24-48h. Criteria: in KEV with patch available, OR CRITICAL + public POC, OR HIGH + EPSS > 10%, OR CRITICAL + active threat, OR any CRITICAL severity.
This Week Schedule remediation this week. Criteria: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9). Patch within normal change window.
This Month Plan within 30 days. Criteria: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9), lower exploitation probability. Include in regular patch cycle.
Monitor Track and reassess. Criteria: LOW severity (CVSS 0.1-3.9), minimal exploitation risk. No immediate action needed.

SSVC AssessmentENISA

SSVC Decision
Scheduled
Exploitation
None
System Exposure· derived
Small
Automatable
No
Human Impact
High
Technical Impact
Total

Priority Score

35
Low Medium High Critical
KEV: 0
EPSS: 0
CVSS: +35
PoC: 0
Weaponized: 0
Threat intel: 0
Gov advisory: 0

Attack Technique

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