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Attack ChainAIDerived

Hypothetical attack flow derived from CVE metadata – not a confirmed exploit chain

  1. Access
    Obtain low-privileged local session
  2. Delivery
    Invoke vulnerable Windows Installer operation
  3. Exploit
    Trigger numeric truncation / stack overflow
  4. Execution
    Execute code as SYSTEM
  5. Impact
    Full host compromise

Vulnerability Assessment

Weakness
CWE
ASVS 5.0
V15 - Secure Coding and Architecture Stack buffer bounds checking
MITRE ATT&CK

1 technique across 1 tactic: Execution

The technique list with ATT&CK links and the kill-chain view is part of the Basic plan and up.

Exploitation Conditions

Exploitation requires the attacker to already possess local, authenticated low-privilege access (PR:L, AV:L) on an affected Windows system - this is not remotely reachable and cannot be triggered across a network. The flaw lies in the Windows Installer (msiexec/MSI handling) code path, so the attacker must be able to invoke an installer operation that reaches the vulnerable numeric-truncation/stack-overflow logic. No user interaction is needed (UI:N) and complexity is low (AC:L), so once a foothold exists, escalation to SYSTEM is reliable. Limiting factors: the mandatory pre-existing authenticated foothold, the local-only attack surface, and the requirement that the host run an unpatched affected build (e.g. Windows 10/11, Server 2012 through 2025 below the fixed revisions listed in EUVD).

Impact

This is a credible but not urgent priority. The CVSS 3.1 vector (AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H, 7.8 HIGH) describes a local privilege-escalation flaw: an attacker must already have authenticated low-privilege code execution on the host (PR:L) and attack locally (AV:L), with low complexity and no user interaction, yielding total confidentiality, integrity and availability impact on the same system (scope unchanged). CISA's SSVC framework aligns with this and tempers urgency: Exploitation is 'none' (no observed or public exploitation), Automatable is 'no' (consistent with a local EoP that cannot be sprayed across the internet), while Technical Impact is 'total' (consistent with the C:H/I:H/A:H full-system compromise). There is no CISA KEV listing and no indication of public exploit code, so the status is 'no public exploit identified at time of analysis.' No EPSS score was provided in the input, so probabilistic exploitation likelihood cannot be quoted. The signals are internally consistent: high technical impact but gated behind local authenticated access and not currently automatable or exploited, so this is a patch-in-normal-cycle local EoP rather than a fire-drill remote threat - though as a Windows Installer EoP it is a classic second-stage tool for attackers who already have a foothold. One data note: the description attributes a 'numeric truncation error' (a CWE-681-class integer defect) while the assigned CWE is CWE-121 (stack-based buffer overflow); these are related only if the truncation feeds an undersized buffer calculation - verify the precise root cause with Microsoft's advisory.

Exploit ScenarioDerived

An attacker who already has a low-privileged authenticated session on a Windows host (for example via phishing-delivered malware or a compromised standard user account) invokes the vulnerable Windows Installer code path, triggering the numeric-truncation/stack buffer overflow to run code with SYSTEM privileges. No user interaction is required and attack complexity is low, but local access and an existing foothold are prerequisites. No public exploit code has been identified at the time of analysis.

This Week Schedule remediation this week. Why: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9).
Patch available 0.3% exploitation probability (EPSS)

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AnalysisAIv1 – Oct 13, 2026

Local privilege escalation in Microsoft Windows Installer (msiexec) lets an attacker who already holds low-privilege authenticated access on an affected Windows host corrupt memory in the installer code path and elevate to SYSTEM (CVSS 7.8, AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H). The underlying defect is a numeric-truncation/stack-based buffer overflow (CWE-121) in MSI handling that requires no user interaction and is reliable once a local foothold exists, but it is not remotely reachable. No public exploit code has been identified and CISA's SSVC assessment records no exploitation activity, so this is a credible but not urgent patch-cycle priority rather than an actively exploited threat; Microsoft has released fixes via its MSRC update guide.

RemediationAI

Apply the Microsoft fixes released through the MSRC update guide for CVE-2026-85796 (https://msrc.microsoft.com/update-guide/vulnerability/CVE-2026-85796) by taking the current monthly cumulative update on each affected build; per the EUVD version data, patched revisions include 10.0.14393.9612 for Windows 10 1607 and Server 2016, 10.0.17763.9376 for Windows 10 1809 and Server 2019, 10.0.19044.7807 for Windows 10 21H2/22H2, 10.0.22631.7652 for Windows 11 23H2, 10.0.26100.9711 for Windows 11 24H2, 10.0.26200.9711 for Windows 11 25H2, 10.0.28000.3231 for Windows 11 26H1, 10.0.26300.9711 for Windows 11 26H2, 10.0.20348.5761 for Server 2022, 10.0.26100.33650 for Server 2025, and 6.2.9200.26434 / 6.3.9600.23470 for Server 2012 and 2012 R2 respectively - verify the installed build number rather than assuming, since some EUVD ranges for Server Core SKUs differ. Because the bug is local-only and requires an authenticated low-privilege foothold (PR:L/AV:L), patch prioritisation should focus first on multi-user and VDI/RDP hosts, servers where standard users have interactive or RDP logons, and any endpoint where an attacker could plausibly land code as a normal user; the mandatory pre-existing foothold also means credential hygiene, removal of unnecessary local accounts and least-privilege RDP access directly reduce exposure. Where patching must be staged, compensating controls are constrained because msiexec is a legitimate, widely used component: you can prevent untrusted packages from being interpreted by enforcing WDAC or AppLocker rules that restrict installer execution to trusted publishers or trusted paths, but this requires a well-maintained allowlist and will block ad-hoc or unsigned MSI deployment until rules are tuned. Organisations that do not install software outside change windows can disable the Windows Installer service or set the DisableMSI policy via Group Policy to block installer invocation for non-administrators, accepting the trade-off that legitimate software installation, repair and some update mechanisms will fail until the policy is reverted. Additional watch items with lower cost are monitoring for non-administrative msiexec child processes that spawn System-level processes, and ensuring logging of msiexec command lines is enabled, though these are detective rather than preventive and do not substitute for applying the vendor patch.

Affected VersionsENISA

Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows Server 2012 (Server Core installation) 6.2.9200.0 <6.2.9200.26434
Windows Server 2012 R2 6.3.9600.0 <6.3.9600.23470
Windows 10 Version 22H2 10.0.19045.0 <10.0.19044.7807
Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33650
Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.0 <10.0.20348.5761
Windows 11 version 26H1 10.0.28000.0 <10.0.28000.3231
Windows 11 Version 26H2 10.0.26300.0 <10.0.26300.9711
Windows Server 2016 (Server Core installation) 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33650
Windows 10 Version 1809 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows Server 2012 6.2.9200.0 <6.2.9200.26434
Windows 11 Version 24H2 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.9711
Windows 10 Version 21H2 10.0.19044.0 <10.0.19044.7807
Windows 11 Version 25H2 10.0.26200.0 <10.0.26200.9711
Windows 10 Version 1607 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows 11 Version 23H2 10.0.22631.0 <10.0.22631.7652
Windows Server 2016 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation) 6.3.9600.0 <6.3.9600.23470

Affected Packages

euvd windows_10_version_1607 fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_10_version_1809 fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_10_version_21h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7807
euvd windows_10_version_22h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7807
euvd windows_11_version_23h2 fix: 10.0.22631.7652
euvd windows_11_version_24h2 fix: 10.0.26100.9711
euvd windows_11_version_25h2 fix: 10.0.26200.9711
euvd windows_11_version_26h1 fix: 10.0.28000.3231
euvd windows_11_version_26h2 fix: 10.0.26300.9711
euvd windows_server_2012 fix: 6.2.9200.26434
euvd windows_server_2012_r2 fix: 6.3.9600.23470
euvd windows_server_2012_r2_server_core_installation fix: 6.3.9600.23470
euvd windows_server_2012_server_core_installation fix: 6.2.9200.26434
euvd windows_server_2016 fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_server_2016_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_server_2019 fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_server_2019_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_server_2022 fix: 10.0.20348.5761
euvd windows_server_2025 fix: 10.0.26100.33650
euvd windows_server_2025_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.26100.33650

Source: OSV (Open Source Vulnerabilities)

Affects your stack

Affects 20 packages in euvd

Checking this CVE against your own stacks and servers is part of the Basic plan and up.

Technical ContextAI · show details

The affected component is the Windows Installer service and client (msiexec.exe) that parses and executes MSI packages - including property data, custom actions, internal tables and command-line arguments passed to msiexec - on the local host. The root-cause class is CWE-121 (stack-based buffer overflow), reached here through a numeric truncation error: a size or count value is narrowed (for example from a 64-bit or larger integer to a 32-bit length) before being used to size or copy into a fixed stack buffer, so a crafted value produces an undersized allocation followed by an out-of-bounds copy that overwrites stack memory, including return addresses and saved state. Because the vulnerable code runs inside a Windows service context, successful corruption yields code execution at SYSTEM. Note that the description characterises the bug as numeric truncation while the referenced CWE and vendor tags classify it as a stack overflow; operationally these are the same defect - the truncation is the mechanism, the stack overflow is the consequence. The attack surface is strictly local: the CVSS vector shows AV:L with PR:L, meaning the attacker must already have an authenticated low-privilege logon and must be able to invoke an installer operation (for example running msiexec against a malicious or manipulated MSI parameter set) that reaches the vulnerable parsing logic. UI:N and AC:L mean no victim interaction is required and no race or unusual condition must be won, so escalation to SYSTEM is dependable after initial access. No CPE strings were supplied with the source data; affected builds are instead enumerated in the EUVD version ranges covering Windows 10, Windows 11 and Windows Server 2012 through 2025.

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  • Exploit and PoC references, threat intelligence from 22 sources

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Severity by source

Vendor (microsoft) PRIMARY 7.8 HIGH
AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
vuln.today AI 7.8 HIGH

Local privilege escalation requiring an existing low-privileged session gives AV:L and PR:L; low complexity and no interaction with full SYSTEM compromise yields C:H/I:H/A:H, scope unchanged.

3.1 AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
4.0 AV:L/AC:L/AT:N/PR:L/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Primary rating from Vendor (microsoft).

CVSS VectorVendor: microsoft

Attack Vector
Local
Attack Complexity
Low
Privileges Required
Low
User Interaction
None
Scope
Unchanged
Confidentiality
High
Integrity
High
Availability
High

Lifecycle Timeline

2
Patch available
Oct 13, 2026 - 20:20 EUVD
CVE Published
Oct 13, 2026 - 19:21 cve.org
HIGH 7.8

DescriptionCVE.org

Numeric truncation error in Windows Installer allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

Executive ViewAI

Why It Matters

A high-severity local privilege escalation in Microsoft Windows Installer (msiexec) enables an authenticated attacker with low-privilege access to gain SYSTEM-level control on affected Windows hosts. This vulnerability is not remotely exploitable and no public exploit code has been identified, but because it allows full system compromise once an attacker has any local foothold, organizations should prioritize patching multi-user, remote-access, and server systems to prevent post-exploitation escalation.

Business Impact: Medium
Compensating Controls

Apply vendor patch.

Threat Intelligence Overview

EPSS Score
0.3%
Top 77% exploitable
Prevalence
Ubiquitous
Windows Installer is a core component of every supported Windows release
Vendor Status
Publicly Disclosed:No
Exploited:No
Latest Software Release:Exploitation Less Likely
Data Quality
5 sources
Confidence: Medium

How this decision was reached

The engine reads each signal below and applies a fixed list of rules from top to bottom. The first rule that matches sets the recommended action – like a statement, every line is shown.

SignalValue
Severity HIGH
CISA KEV No
Public POC No
EPSS 0.3%
Patch available Yes
Active threat No
Deciding rule
HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9)
What every action level means
Emergency Immediate action required. Criteria: CRITICAL + in CISA KEV (actively exploited) without patch, OR CRITICAL + EPSS > 30% without patch, OR CRITICAL + active threat signals without patch.
Act Now Prioritize within 24-48h. Criteria: in KEV with patch available, OR CRITICAL + public POC, OR HIGH + EPSS > 10%, OR CRITICAL + active threat, OR any CRITICAL severity.
This Week Schedule remediation this week. Criteria: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9). Patch within normal change window.
This Month Plan within 30 days. Criteria: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9), lower exploitation probability. Include in regular patch cycle.
Monitor Track and reassess. Criteria: LOW severity (CVSS 0.1-3.9), minimal exploitation risk. No immediate action needed.

SSVC AssessmentENISA

SSVC Decision
Defer
Exploitation
None
System Exposure· derived
Small
Automatable
No
Human Impact
Medium
Technical Impact
Total

Priority Score

39
Low Medium High Critical
KEV: 0
EPSS: 0
CVSS: +39
PoC: 0
Weaponized: 0
Threat intel: 0
Gov advisory: 0

Attack Technique

A buffer overflow occurs when a program writes more data to a memory buffer than it was allocated to hold, causing the excess data to spill into adjacent memory regions.

A stack-based buffer overflow occurs when a program writes more data to a buffer located on the stack than it was allocated to hold.

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