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Attack ChainAIDerived

Hypothetical attack flow derived from CVE metadata – not a confirmed exploit chain

  1. Access
    Obtain low-privileged local session
  2. Delivery
    Invoke Windows Installer with crafted input
  3. Exploit
    Trigger NULL pointer dereference (CWE-476)
  4. Execution
    Execute code as SYSTEM
  5. Impact
    Full host compromise

Vulnerability Assessment

Weakness
CWE
OWASP Top 10:2025
A10:2025 - Mishandling of Exceptional Conditions
ASVS 5.0
V16 - Security Logging and Error Handling Null pointer safety, defensive checks
MITRE ATT&CK

1 technique across 1 tactic: Impact

The technique list with ATT&CK links and the kill-chain view is part of the Basic plan and up.

Exploitation Conditions

Requires an existing authenticated low-privileged local session on the target host (AV:L, PR:L, no user interaction) interacting with the Windows Installer service; it cannot be triggered remotely or by an anonymous user. Exploitation is further limited by high attack complexity (AC:H), meaning the attacker must satisfy specific conditions - likely a race or particular Installer runtime state - to turn the NULL pointer dereference into a usable privilege-escalation primitive rather than a mere crash. Affected hosts are any unpatched Windows build within the EUVD-listed ranges (Windows 10 21H2/22H2, Windows 11 23H2-26H2, Server 2012 through Server 2025).

Impact

This is a locally-exploitable privilege-escalation flaw (CVSS 7.0, CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H) in the Windows Installer service. The vector signals a genuine but not trivial threat: the attacker must already have local, authenticated access with low privileges (PR:L) and must overcome high attack complexity (AC:H), which typically implies winning a race condition or meeting specific runtime state to force the NULL pointer dereference into an exploitable EoP primitive rather than a simple crash. Impact is rated full C:H/I:H/A:H, consistent with gaining SYSTEM. No EPSS score, SSVC decision, KEV listing, or POC is present in the provided data, so there is no evidence of active or probable near-term exploitation - exploitation status is therefore 'no public exploit identified at time of analysis.' There is a notable conflict in the metadata: the CWE (CWE-476, NULL pointer dereference) and the 'Denial Of Service' tag both point toward a crash/DoS outcome, yet the official description explicitly says the flaw is used to 'elevate privileges locally' and the CVSS impact triad is C:H/I:H/A:H - a pure DoS would normally be A:H with C:N/I:N. Treat this as an EoP primitive, not a DoS, and note the tag/CWE framing understates the real impact. Overall this is a patch-in-normal-cycle local EoP: meaningful on multi-user and post-compromise hosts, but gated by prior local access and high complexity, so not an emergency relative to remote unauthenticated criticals.

Exploit ScenarioDerived

An attacker who already has a low-privileged authenticated foothold on a Windows host (for example via phishing, stolen credentials, or a sandboxed service account) invokes Windows Installer in a way that triggers the NULL pointer dereference under the specific conditions required by AC:H, converting the fault into a controlled privilege-escalation primitive to run code as SYSTEM. No public exploit code is identified in the provided data, and the high attack complexity suggests reliable exploitation requires precise timing or state manipulation.

This Week Schedule remediation this week. Why: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9).
Patch available 0.3% exploitation probability (EPSS)

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AnalysisAIv1 – Oct 13, 2026

Privilege escalation in Microsoft Windows Installer allows a local, authenticated attacker with low privileges to gain elevated rights on affected Windows hosts. The flaw is a NULL pointer dereference (CWE-476) in the Installer service, rated CVSS 7.0 (AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H); exploitation requires a specific runtime condition (high attack complexity) but can lead to full compromise of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. Microsoft has released patches; no public exploit code has been identified at time of analysis. Affected systems include Windows 10 21H2/22H2, Windows 11 23H2 through 26H2, and Windows Server 2012 through 2025.

RemediationAI

Microsoft has released vendor patches. Apply the updates to the fixed builds listed in the affected products paragraph; for example, upgrade Windows Server 2019 to 10.0.17763.9376 or later, Windows 10 21H2/22H2 to 10.0.19044.7807 or later, Windows 11 23H2 to 10.0.22631.7652 or later, Windows 11 24H2 to 10.0.26100.9711 or later, Windows Server 2025 to 10.0.26100.33650 or later, and so on. The authoritative advisory and patch links are at https://msrc.microsoft.com/update-guide/vulnerability/CVE-2026-88076. If immediate patching is not possible, enforce least privilege to limit low-privileged local accounts, monitor for anomalous Windows Installer (msiexec.exe) activity, and consider restricting interactive logon to trusted users; however, these are only temporary mitigations and do not fully address the flaw.

Affected VersionsENISA

Windows Server 2019 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows 10 Version 21H2 10.0.19044.0 <10.0.19044.7807
Windows 11 version 26H1 10.0.28000.0 <10.0.28000.3231
Windows 10 Version 22H2 10.0.19045.0 <10.0.19044.7807
Windows Server 2025 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33650
Windows 11 Version 26H2 10.0.26300.0 <10.0.26300.9711
Windows 11 Version 23H2 10.0.22631.0 <10.0.22631.7652
Windows Server 2025 (Server Core installation) 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.33650
Windows Server 2022 10.0.20348.0 <10.0.20348.5761
Windows Server 2016 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows Server 2012 R2 6.3.9600.0 <6.3.9600.23470
Windows Server 2012 6.2.9200.0 <6.2.9200.26434
Windows Server 2016 (Server Core installation) 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows 11 Version 24H2 10.0.26100.0 <10.0.26100.9711
Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation) 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows 10 Version 1809 10.0.17763.0 <10.0.17763.9376
Windows Server 2012 (Server Core installation) 6.2.9200.0 <6.2.9200.26434
Windows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation) 6.3.9600.0 <6.3.9600.23470
Windows 10 Version 1607 10.0.14393.0 <10.0.14393.9612
Windows 11 Version 25H2 10.0.26200.0 <10.0.26200.9711

Affected Packages

euvd windows_10_version_1607 fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_10_version_1809 fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_10_version_21h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7807
euvd windows_10_version_22h2 fix: 10.0.19044.7807
euvd windows_11_version_23h2 fix: 10.0.22631.7652
euvd windows_11_version_24h2 fix: 10.0.26100.9711
euvd windows_11_version_25h2 fix: 10.0.26200.9711
euvd windows_11_version_26h1 fix: 10.0.28000.3231
euvd windows_11_version_26h2 fix: 10.0.26300.9711
euvd windows_server_2012 fix: 6.2.9200.26434
euvd windows_server_2012_r2 fix: 6.3.9600.23470
euvd windows_server_2012_r2_server_core_installation fix: 6.3.9600.23470
euvd windows_server_2012_server_core_installation fix: 6.2.9200.26434
euvd windows_server_2016 fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_server_2016_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.14393.9612
euvd windows_server_2019 fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_server_2019_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.17763.9376
euvd windows_server_2022 fix: 10.0.20348.5761
euvd windows_server_2025 fix: 10.0.26100.33650
euvd windows_server_2025_server_core_installation fix: 10.0.26100.33650

Source: OSV (Open Source Vulnerabilities)

Affects your stack

Affects 20 packages in euvd

Checking this CVE against your own stacks and servers is part of the Basic plan and up.

Technical ContextAI · show details

The Windows Installer (msiexec) is a system service that runs with elevated privileges to install, modify, and remove software. CVE-2026-88076 is a NULL pointer dereference (CWE-476) triggered by a local attacker interacting with the Installer service. A NULL pointer dereference often leads to a crash (denial of service), but in this case the CVSS vector indicates high confidentiality, integrity, and availability impact, meaning the attacker can potentially leverage the flaw to execute code with SYSTEM privileges. Exploitation requires an authenticated local session (PR:L) and is hampered by high attack complexity (AC:H), suggesting a race condition or a specific sequence of Installer operations must be achieved. No remote vector is present (AV:L).

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  • Exploit and PoC references, threat intelligence from 22 sources

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Severity by source

Vendor (microsoft) PRIMARY 7.0 HIGH
AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
vuln.today AI 7.0 HIGH

Local, pre-authenticated low-privilege access (AV:L/PR:L) with a race-like trigger (AC:H) yielding SYSTEM-level control, so C:H/I:H/A:H; scope unchanged.

3.1 AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
4.0 AV:L/AC:H/AT:N/PR:L/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Primary rating from Vendor (microsoft).

CVSS VectorVendor: microsoft

Attack Vector
Local
Attack Complexity
High
Privileges Required
Low
User Interaction
None
Scope
Unchanged
Confidentiality
High
Integrity
High
Availability
High

Lifecycle Timeline

2
Patch available
Oct 13, 2026 - 20:20 EUVD
CVE Published
Oct 13, 2026 - 19:21 cve.org
HIGH 7.0

DescriptionCVE.org

Null pointer dereference in Windows Installer allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

Executive ViewAI

Why It Matters

A privilege-escalation flaw in Microsoft Windows Installer (CVE-2026-88076) affects virtually the entire supported Windows estate, including Windows 10 21H2/22H2, Windows 11 23H2 through 26H2, and Windows Server 2012 through 2025. A user who already has a low-privileged local account could combine this defect with other weaknesses to obtain administrative control of an endpoint, putting credential stores, management agents, and any data reachable from that host at risk. Leadership should care because remediation touches nearly every Windows server and workstation the organization operates, and an attacker who gains elevated rights on a managed endpoint can move laterally into higher-value systems.

Business Impact: High
Compensating Controls

Apply vendor patch.

Threat Intelligence Overview

EPSS Score
0.3%
Top 85% exploitable
Prevalence
Ubiquitous
Windows Installer ships in every supported Windows client and server edition
Vendor Status
Publicly Disclosed:No
Exploited:No
Latest Software Release:Exploitation Less Likely
Data Quality
5 sources
Confidence: Medium

How this decision was reached

The engine reads each signal below and applies a fixed list of rules from top to bottom. The first rule that matches sets the recommended action – like a statement, every line is shown.

SignalValue
Severity HIGH
CISA KEV No
Public POC No
EPSS 0.3%
Patch available Yes
Active threat No
Deciding rule
HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9)
What every action level means
Emergency Immediate action required. Criteria: CRITICAL + in CISA KEV (actively exploited) without patch, OR CRITICAL + EPSS > 30% without patch, OR CRITICAL + active threat signals without patch.
Act Now Prioritize within 24-48h. Criteria: in KEV with patch available, OR CRITICAL + public POC, OR HIGH + EPSS > 10%, OR CRITICAL + active threat, OR any CRITICAL severity.
This Week Schedule remediation this week. Criteria: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9). Patch within normal change window.
This Month Plan within 30 days. Criteria: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9), lower exploitation probability. Include in regular patch cycle.
Monitor Track and reassess. Criteria: LOW severity (CVSS 0.1-3.9), minimal exploitation risk. No immediate action needed.

SSVC AssessmentENISA

SSVC Decision
Defer
Exploitation
None
System Exposure· derived
Small
Automatable
No
Human Impact
High
Technical Impact
Total

Priority Score

35
Low Medium High Critical
KEV: 0
EPSS: 0
CVSS: +35
PoC: 0
Weaponized: 0
Threat intel: 0
Gov advisory: 0

Attack Technique

A null pointer dereference occurs when a program attempts to access memory through a pointer that has been set to NULL (address 0x0).

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