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Attack ChainAIDerived

Hypothetical attack flow derived from CVE metadata – not a confirmed exploit chain

  1. Recon
    Obtain write access to backed-up directory
  2. Delivery
    Prepare symlink or rename trap in dumpdir-tracked path
  3. Exploit
    Wait for privileged user to initiate incremental restore
  4. Install
    Race to inject symlink during tar's check-to-use window
  5. C2
    Tar writes file outside extraction root
  6. Execute
    Overwrite sensitive system file
  7. Impact
    Achieve privilege escalation

Vulnerability Assessment

Weakness
CWE
ASVS 5.0
V15 - Secure Coding and Architecture TOCTOU prevention
Exploitation Conditions

Exploitation requires three concurrent conditions to be satisfied simultaneously. First, the attacker must hold a low-privileged local account with write access to at least one directory that is included in an active incremental tar backup set using the dumpdir 'X' rename tracking feature - this means the backup must be run with --listed-incremental or equivalent. Second, the attacker must have access to the specific system where the restore is performed, which may be the same host or a separate restore target. Third, the restore operation must be initiated by a privileged user or automated process (UI:R), since the attacker cannot trigger the restore independently. The race window is narrow and timing-dependent (AC:H), requiring the attacker to swap in a symlink or manipulate a path entry between tar's check and use. The CVE description explicitly rules out the -P omission and new-directory extraction as mitigations, limiting defenders' options without patching. Exploitation is limited to incremental backup workflows - standard non-incremental tar archive extraction is not affected.

Impact

The CVSS 3.1 score of 4.4 (Medium) with vector AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N accurately captures the multi-prerequisite nature of this attack. The high attack complexity (AC:H) reflects a genuine race condition with a narrow timing window. PR:L confirms the attacker needs an existing low-privileged account and write access to a directory in the backup set. UI:R is a meaningful gate - exploitation cannot proceed without a separate user (typically an administrator) actively performing a restore. No EPSS score was provided in the input, and the CVE is not in CISA KEV, so exploitation probability in the wild is unquantified but presumed low given the complexity. The I:H rating is warranted because successful exploitation allows writing files to arbitrary paths, which on Linux can chain into privilege escalation (e.g., overwriting a setuid binary or cron job). The absence of confidentiality or availability impact keeps the overall severity realistic. This is a genuine but operationally constrained risk - highest on multi-tenant systems where untrusted users share backed-up directories with privileged restore workflows.

Exploit ScenarioDerived

A low-privileged user on a shared RHEL server has write access to a home directory or shared folder that an administrator backs up nightly using GNU tar's incremental mode. The attacker pre-stages a directory rename sequence in the dumpdir-tracked path, then waits for the administrator to perform a restore; during the brief window between tar's rename check and execution, the attacker replaces the rename target with a symlink pointing to /etc/cron.d, causing tar to write a controlled file into the cron directory and achieving code execution as root at the next cron cycle.

This Month Plan within 30 days. Why: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9).
Patch available 0.1% exploitation probability (EPSS)

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AnalysisAIv1 – Aug 03, 2026

GNU tar's incremental restore path contains a TOCTOU race condition in dumpdir 'X' rename handling, allowing a local attacker with write access to a backed-up directory to redirect file operations outside the intended extraction root during a privileged restore. Successful exploitation can result in arbitrary file creation, rename, or overwrite - enabling privilege escalation on systems running Red Hat Enterprise Linux 6 through 10 and Red Hat Hardened Images. No public exploit is identified at time of analysis, and no CISA KEV listing exists; the CVSS score of 4.4 reflects the constrained attack prerequisites including a required race window and administrator-initiated restore.

RemediationAI

Apply Red Hat security errata for the affected RHEL versions once published - monitor https://access.redhat.com/security/cve/CVE-2026-18477 for the official update package. No specific fixed GNU tar version or RHSA advisory number was confirmed in the available data at time of analysis; track https://bugzilla.redhat.com/show_bug.cgi?id=2509735 for patch status updates. As a compensating control, restrict write access to directories included in incremental backup sets to only fully trusted accounts, eliminating the attacker's ability to manipulate the backup source before or during restoration. Additionally, perform restore operations in isolated environments under a dedicated backup service account that holds no additional system privileges, reducing the impact of any path traversal. Critically, the CVE description explicitly states that standard defenses - extracting into a newly created directory and omitting the -P flag - do NOT mitigate this vulnerability, so do not rely on these controls as substitutes for patching.

Affects your stack

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Technical ContextAI · show details

GNU tar's incremental backup mode (invoked with --listed-incremental or -g) records filesystem state in a dumpdir format, using 'X' markers to encode file rename operations. During restoration, tar processes these rename entries sequentially - checking the source path and then performing the rename. CWE-367 (Time-of-Check Time-of-Use) describes exactly this pattern: the window between the check and the use allows an attacker to swap in a symlink or manipulate directory entries, causing tar to follow attacker-controlled paths outside the extraction root. The vulnerability is present in GNU tar as packaged across Red Hat Enterprise Linux 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10, as well as Red Hat Hardened Images and OpenShift Container Platform 4, per CPE data (cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_*). The underlying flaw resides in upstream GNU tar's incremental restore logic, but the advisory scope and CPEs are Red Hat-specific.

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Severity by source

Vendor (redhat) PRIMARY 4.4 MEDIUM
AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N
vuln.today AI 4.4 MEDIUM

Local-only vector with race-condition complexity; write access and admin-initiated restore required; pure integrity impact with no confidentiality or availability consequences.

3.1 AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N
4.0 AV:L/AC:H/AT:P/PR:L/UI:A/VC:N/VI:H/VA:N/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N
SUSE MEDIUM
Red Hat 4.4 MEDIUM

Primary rating from Vendor (redhat).

CVSS VectorVendor: redhat

Attack Vector
Local
Attack Complexity
High
Privileges Required
Low
User Interaction
Required
Scope
Unchanged
Confidentiality
None
Integrity
High
Availability
None

DescriptionCVE.org

A TOCTOU (Time-of-Check Time-of-Use) vulnerability in GNU tar's incremental dumpdir 'X' rename handling allows a local attacker with write access to a directory being backed up to influence the restore process if the attacker has access to the system where the restore is being performed. During restoration, files or directories may be created, renamed or overwritten outside the intended extraction directory. This could lead to unauthorized file modification or, in some cases, privilege escalation. Exploitation does not require the attacker to modify or craft the archive, and standard backup and restore workflows-including extracting into a newly created directory without using the -P option do not mitigate the issue.

Threat Intelligence Overview

EPSS Score
0.1%
Top 99% exploitable
Prevalence
High
GNU tar ships as a core utility across all major Linux enterprise distributions
Data Quality
7 sources
Confidence: High
EUVD NVD CVE.org EPSS Vulnrichment MSRC Vendor VulDB

How this decision was reached

The engine reads each signal below and applies a fixed list of rules from top to bottom. The first rule that matches sets the recommended action – like a statement, every line is shown.

SignalValue
Severity MEDIUM
CISA KEV No
Public POC No
EPSS 0.1%
Patch available Yes
Active threat No
Deciding rule
MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9)
What every action level means
Emergency Immediate action required. Criteria: CRITICAL + in CISA KEV (actively exploited) without patch, OR CRITICAL + EPSS > 30% without patch, OR CRITICAL + active threat signals without patch.
Act Now Prioritize within 24-48h. Criteria: in KEV with patch available, OR CRITICAL + public POC, OR HIGH + EPSS > 10%, OR CRITICAL + active threat, OR any CRITICAL severity.
This Week Schedule remediation this week. Criteria: HIGH severity (CVSS 7.0-8.9). Patch within normal change window.
This Month Plan within 30 days. Criteria: MEDIUM severity (CVSS 4.0-6.9), lower exploitation probability. Include in regular patch cycle.
Monitor Track and reassess. Criteria: LOW severity (CVSS 0.1-3.9), minimal exploitation risk. No immediate action needed.

SSVC AssessmentENISA

SSVC Decision· derived
Scheduled
Exploitation
None
System Exposure· derived
Small
Automatable
No
Human Impact· derived
High
Technical Impact
Partial

Priority Score

22
Low Medium High Critical
KEV: 0
EPSS: 0
CVSS: +22
PoC: 0
Weaponized: 0
Threat intel: 0
Gov advisory: 0

Attack Technique

Privilege escalation occurs when an attacker leverages flaws in access control mechanisms to gain permissions beyond what they were originally granted.

Affected Products (CPE)CVE.org

cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_10:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_6:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_7:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_8:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_enterprise_linux_9:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_hardened_images:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
cpe:2.3:a:red_hat:red_hat_openshift_container_platform_4:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
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Vendor StatusVendor

SUSE

Severity: Moderate
Product Status
SLES15-SP5-CHOST-BYOS-SAP-CCloud Affected
SLES15-SP6-CHOST-BYOS Affected
SLES15-SP6-CHOST-BYOS-Aliyun Affected
SLES15-SP6-CHOST-BYOS-Azure Affected
SLES15-SP6-CHOST-BYOS-EC2 Affected

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